CAP analyzed the locations of licensed child care providers in 22 states, covering two-thirds of the U.S. population, and found that approximately half of Americans live in "child care deserts." Specifically, this analysis defines child care deserts as neighborhoods or communities that are either lacking any child care options or have so few child care providers that there are more than three children for every licensed child care slot. According to research published by the U.S. Census Bureau, one-third of children under age 5 are regularly in nonrelative care; therefore, in places where there are more than three children for every child care slot, there may be child care waiting lists, unlicensed child care arrangements, or effects on parents' employment decisions.

This study finds that 58 percent of rural census tracts qualify as child care deserts, while only 44 percent of suburban neighborhoods fit the definition. Urban areas where the median family income is below average also have high rates of child care deserts. Additionally, Hispanic/Latino and American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) communities are disproportionately represented in child care deserts, with roughly 60 percent of their combined population living in areas with a low supply of child care. More than 75 percent of the rural AIAN population lives in a child care desert.

Child care deserts have, on average, maternal labor force participation rates 3 percentage points lower than communities where there is adequate child care supply. In communities where median family incomes are below the national average, this maternal employment gap is even wider.

CAP collected data on the location and licensed capacity of nearly 150,000 licensed or registered child care providers from 22 states. The authors included all child care centers; family child care providers; Head Start providers; and public and private preschools in these states in order to get a full picture of the supply of licensed child care options available to nearby communities.

Each child care provider was geocoded based on the physical address provided on their license, giving the authors a precise latitude and longitude for every provider. In cases where the precise address was not available, the authors used the ZIP code to approximate the address. The authors then grouped providers by census tract and added up the total licensed capacity of the locations in each tract. This information was merged with a variety of census estimates on population demographics, population density, family income, poverty, and maternal labor force participation, among other variables. All data are publicly available, and a list of data sources and census variables can be found in the accompanying report’s Appendix.

Using this original dataset, the authors applied the child care deserts definition to more than 45,000 census tracts, a geographic unit sometimes used by city planners to approximate neighborhoods. Census tracts generally have a population size of between 1,200 and 8,000 people, with most tracts housing around 4,000 people. These geographic units usually cover a contiguous area, and their boundaries commonly follow identifiable features.